Earlier this week in Brussels at the European Parliament, the European Internet Foundation (EIF) launched its report entitled: ‘The Digital World in 2030: What Place for Europe? This blog summarises the purpose and content of this document and explains its relevance to the current situation of the European Union.
>Background:
As set out in the Preface from the Board of Governors, five years ago in September 2009, the EIF published “The Digital World in 2025: indicators for European Action”. Repeating the exercise ahead of the next Parliament…”Our purpose remains as it has been: to challenge Europe’s political leaders and policy-makers – and more particularly European legislators – to put Europe’s place in tomorrow’s digital world at the CENTRE of their preoccupations and priorities TODAY. What follows is not a forecast or a prediction. Rather, it continues to represent a collective assessment by members of the EIF and our many guests of probable outcomes, based on trends observable today.”
>A vision of the digital world in 2030:
Five years ago, the EIF proposed a central unifying paradigm – a world driven by “mass collaboration” – enabled by the ubiquitous availability and use of high-speed, high capacity digital communications systems, tools and services connected by the Internet. In the light of developments since 2009, this analysis certainly stands scrutiny as far as it goes, but “does not capture the depth and breadth of what we can now clearly envision”.
“Today we can see that the accelerating development, uptake, and especially convergence of digital technologies around the world portends a radically different world by 2030, driving us toward what can usefully be thought of as a “Knowing Society” in which the real-time, real-world ability to continuously track, measure and interpret – i.e. to “know” – and react to the current state of virtually any external condition or phenomenon at any scale at any time through continuous targeted real-time data capture and analysis (today widely referred to as “Big Data”) becomes the primary source of economic, social and political power at any scale”.
>Key Elements of the Document:
Introducing the document at the launch, attention was drawn to key aspects noted since 2009 in the evolution of the technologies and tools driving the digital revolution; the observable economic, as well as the political and social trends. We are looking at trends more than outcomes. The timeline of 2030 is an intellectual device, challenging us to ask ourselves whether a particular trend will endure and grow up to shape our world decades hence, or whether it is merely an ephemeral blip on our ubiquitous screens, noise in cyberspace signifying nothing.
>Here are a few of the pointers:
>Technology:
Five years ago, the trend was clear. The explosive power offered by technology was driven by the prospect of demand for individuals to communicate and collaborate with one another. Today, the prospect of 2030 offers convergence of these digital technologies that was before unseen. Microchips providing a terabyte of memory on a smart mobile device requiring 20 times less power with 20 times more endurance are nearly ready for release on the market. This processing power will enable user with an all in one device for all our day to day needs. We are heading towards a world whereby software and hardware devices have the ability to converge and create new technologies. One commentator has called this: ‘the digital technology avalanche’. In the digital world of 2030, there are no barriers or limits to where technology could develop next;
>Economy:
Five years ago, it was already evident that digital technologies have changed traditional economic models of production, supply and demand. Today, the prospect of 2030 draws our thinking towards the dawn of the third industrial revolution. Digital technologies will become more affordable and accessible to anyone, anywhere and at any time. This digital revolution is widespread and will cause real structural change from an employment perspective. From a macroeconomic view, digital systems will take over information processing jobs. This ‘race against the machine’ means that in our developed economies, employment will open up in the field of developing, deploying and operating these new technologies. These high-tech jobs will have a multiplier effect. Today, the creation of one high-tech job in a region of Europe resulted in more than four additional non-high tech jobs being created in the same region;
>Socio-political:
Five years ago, we expected a surge in online social behaviour through networks to create, facilitate and maintain relationships in order to organise our lives, political movements, businesses and events. Today, the prospect of 2030 discusses the impact this social behaviour is beginning to have in our society. Young people tend to spend around 8 and a half hours each day exposed to digital technology. This is rewiring their brains neural circuitry and heightening their skills in multitasking, complex reasoning and decision making. The older generation is working harder than ever to embrace these new technologies in order to catch up. It is thought that by 2030 the gap between the younger ‘digital natives’ and older ‘digital immigrants’ will have closed (especially within developing economies).
>Some points raised at the launch:
>Speed of technology is accelerating. Under Moore’s Law it is observed that, in computing, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles every two years. Over the past five years, technology has rapidly increased, developing globally. To keep up, how will Europe harness the capacity technology has to increase productivity?;
>Old industries need updating. The third industrial revolution is now on our doorstep. How can Europe improve radically its current digital infrastructure?;
>Accessing knowledge is changing. This has been a fundamental pragmatic change in the scientific field. No longer are universities the sole source of knowledge. Instead, crowding of knowledge is occurring from many sources, searching for what we need. How can Europe harness this driver for change?;
>The sufficient skills for the digital sector. Europe’s workforce needs to be sufficiently equipped to deliver the technical jobs of tomorrow. A job for life no longer exists and lifelong learning will be needed to continuously update our skills with current technologies. How should Europe’s educational structures be changed in order to facilitate this task?;
>Risk of digital exclusion. As innovation develops, more in society are leading digital lives. We should be wary of excluding others, especially with a rising elderly population in Europe. The internet can be a tool to mitigate this risk, but where will Europe find the balance between innovation and exclusion?;
>Big Data will drive us towards a ‘Knowing Society’. We are beginning to be able to live within a real-time digital world. This world will have the ability to continually track and assess data around us in order to respond with solutions to external problems we face. How will Europeans cope with such a large flow of new data?
>What place for Europe?
These comments made at the launch and the key elements contained within this document are crucial to the European Union as priorities for the incoming mandate 2014 – 2019. The key phrase to remember is that 2030 is now. There is no time to waste for Europe to regain its’ leadership in digital technology, as it had with the GSM standard in the 1990s.
If Europe is to realise growth without debt, then it has to harness the ability technology has in order to increase productivity. We are on the cusp of the ‘third industrial revolution’ and we are in real danger of losing out if action is not taken now to ensure that Europe will be a real player. People need to be equipped with the correct skills and governments need to equip those that will deliver tomorrow’s digital world with the correct tools. Otherwise, we risk losing this opportunity as others around the global race power ahead.
As I indicated in my closing remarks at the launch, the digital trends 2030 document is a remarkable insight into the world we are moving towards, where the speed of change is much faster than politicians and regulators can easily adjust. Our best bet to enable these elements to happen is to place completing the Digital Single Market at the top of our priorities.
>Concluding remark:
In a nutshell, the report can be summarised as follows:
“Core digital technologies are evolving and converging rapidly, fuelled by real-time, real-world data, driving us towards a Knowing Society and creating the foundation for an avalanche of innovative soft-ware platforms and other digital tools available and affordable to anybody and everybody, everywhere for virtually any purpose. In economic terms, we are finally on the cusp of ‘the real’ third industrial revolution. We need to understand and exploit this vast opportunity, while also urgently addressing the intense social and political stresses this revolution will inevitably engender. Europe’s political leaders need to engage with this revolution across the full range of competences. 2030 is now. Completing Europe’s Digital Single Market is the most urgent priority”.
The document: ‘The Digital World in 2030 What Place for Europe?’ is now available to read online at: https://www.eifonline.org/digitalworld2030, please read, rate and review, for Europe’s digital world, 2030 is now!